NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Confluence, PA
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
11 tropical systems have passed within 75 miles of Confluence, Pennsylvania since 1851, 1 of them at hurricane strength; the most recent was Sandy in 2012. Since 1950, 41 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 2 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 1
- Tropical storms
- 10
- Tornadoes
- 41
- EF3 or stronger
- 2
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
1 deaths in all
What the records show for Confluence
The strongest storm to pass near Confluence was an unnamed storm in 1893, a Category 1 hurricane with 74 mph winds when its centre passed 73 miles away. The record near Confluence begins with an unnamed storm in 1878; the most recent system was Sandy in 2012, a tropical storm 46 miles away. The busiest decade was the 1890s, with 3 systems, one of them at hurricane strength. Of the 11 systems, 2 have come since 2000. Of the 794 Pennsylvania cities on this site, 45% have more hurricanes within 75 miles than Confluence. The strongest of the 41 tornadoes within 25 miles was an F4 on June 2, 1998; its path came within 15 miles. The deadliest, an F3 on May 31, 1998, killed 1 person. Of the 41, one had a path within 5 miles of the city centre, and 17 have come since 2000. June has had the most tornadoes, 12. The most recent tornado was on March 16, 2025. Of the 794 Pennsylvania cities, 78% have more tornadoes within 25 miles than Confluence. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 10 times since 2006, with stones up to 1.25 inches (half dollar size). Of the 794 Pennsylvania cities, 96% have more hail reports within 10 miles than Confluence.
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Tropical storms and hurricanes near Confluence
| Year | Storm | Closest | Strength when closest | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | SandyOct 30 | 46 mi | Tropical storm (45 mph) | Category 3 |
| 2003 | IsabelSep 19 | 14 mi | Tropical storm (49 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1979 | FredericSep 14 | 37 mi | Tropical storm (39 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1979 | DavidSep 6 | 61 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1928 | Unnamed 1928 stormSep 20 | 63 mi | Tropical storm (45 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1915 | Unnamed 1915 stormOct 1 | 36 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1896 | Unnamed 1896 stormSep 30 | 41 mi | Tropical storm (67 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 23 | 73 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 14 | 73 mi | Category 1 (74 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1888 | Unnamed 1888 stormAug 21 | overhead | Tropical storm (49 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1878 | Unnamed 1878 stormSep 13 | 4 mi | Tropical storm (54 mph) | Category 2 |
Strength is the sustained wind on the track at the closest point, which is not the wind felt in Confluence: a hurricane's worst winds sit within a few dozen miles of its centre, and inland cities are usually past that.
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Confluence
By decade
- 2020s10
- 2010s3
- 2000s4
- 1990s11(2 EF3+)
- 1980s3
- 1970s4
- 1960s3
- 1950s3
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 1998 | F4 | 15 mi | 36.5 mi | 0 / 5 |
| May 31, 1998 | F3 | 15 mi | 13 mi | 1 / 15 |
| Aug 25, 2023 | EF2 | 10 mi | 1.96 mi | 0 / 6 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | EF2 | 22 mi | 1.56 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 2, 1998 | F2 | 14 mi | 12 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 2, 1998 | F2 | 7 mi | 15 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Oct 1, 1986 | F2 | 18 mi | 4.5 mi | 0 / 2 |
| Jul 13, 1971 | F2 | 15 mi | 16 mi | 0 / 4 |
| Nov 16, 1965 | F2 | 23 mi | 0.1 mi | 0 / 6 |
| May 11, 1951 | F2 | 24 mi | 8 mi | 0 / 1 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | EF1 | 20 mi | 7.69 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | EF1 | 24 mi | 1.62 mi | 0 / 0 |
The strongest 12 of 41, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Confluence
The Storm Prediction Center has 10 hail reports within 10 miles of Confluence since 2006, made on 9 separate days. Of these, 5 were 1 inch across or larger, and none reached 2 inches. The largest, 1.25 inches (half dollar size), fell on June 9, 2011. The most recent report is from March 16, 2025. August has the most reports, 3.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Confluence
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Confluence 1 SW Dam, PA, 2 miles southwest of Confluence at 1,490 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 84°F and low of 60°F; January is the coolest, at 37°F and 19°F. May and June are the wettest at 4.9 inches of precipitation on average and November the driest at 3.1 inches; the year adds up to 47.2 inches over 102 days with at least a tenth of an inch. June to November, the hurricane season months, bring 51% of the year's precipitation (23.9 of 47.2 inches); the other six months are drier. September has brought the most of the 11 tropical systems that passed within 75 miles (6); a normal September there has highs of 76°F and 4.0 inches of precipitation. Highs reach 90°F on about 12 days a year, almost all from June to September. Lows fall below freezing on about 148 nights a year. Snowfall averages 61.2 inches a year, most of it in January. That 47.2 inches is more than at 105 of the 148 Pennsylvania stations used on this site (71%). Farmington, 13 miles west, has its own station (Chalk Hill 2 ENE, PA): 55.6 inches a year, 8.4 more than here, and a July average high of 79°F against 84°F.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" | Snow in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 37 | 19 | 3.6 | 9 | 18.3 |
| Feb | 41 | 20 | 3.4 | 8 | 16.9 |
| Mar | 50 | 27 | 3.9 | 9 | 10.3 |
| Apr | 63 | 36 | 4.0 | 9 | 0.9 |
| May | 72 | 47 | 4.9 | 11 | 0.0 |
| Jun | 80 | 56 | 4.9 | 9 | 0.0 |
| Jul | 84 | 60 | 4.5 | 9 | 0.0 |
| Aug | 82 | 59 | 4.0 | 8 | 0.0 |
| Sep | 76 | 52 | 4.0 | 8 | 0.0 |
| Oct | 64 | 40 | 3.4 | 7 | 0.2 |
| Nov | 52 | 30 | 3.1 | 7 | 3.7 |
| Dec | 41 | 24 | 3.5 | 8 | 10.9 |
| Year | 62 | 39 | 47.2 | 102 | 61.2 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Confluence 1 SW Dam, PA (1,490 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Confluence
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 75 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Confluence: 60 thunderstorm wind reports, 8 floods, 6 flash floods and 1 lightning strike. They killed 0 people and injured 2, and the NWS estimated $1.1 million in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 96 mph, on April 19, 2025. July has had the most flash floods, 4 of 6. Of the 788 Pennsylvania cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 92 have had fewer than Confluence.
April 19, 2025: thunderstorm wind 5 miles from the centre of Confluence — 2 injured, $120,000 damage.
NWS: “A severe thunderstorm, producing straight-line winds in excess of 95 mph, caused extensive tree damage in Addison and elk Lick Townships. In Addison, a tree fell onto a residence, with multiple trees knocked down across roadways in Addison, knocking out power for a majority of the town.”
April 19, 2025: thunderstorm wind 10 miles from the centre of Confluence — $500,000 damage.
July 17, 2013: flash flood 9 miles from the centre of Confluence — $100,000 damage.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Flood insurance policyholders in Confluence's ZIP code 15424 have filed 16 claims with the National Flood Insurance Program since 1981, and were paid $166,000 for buildings and contents, in the dollars of each year. 25% of the claims carry the name of a storm or flood event; the rest have no event name. Of the 553 Pennsylvania cities on this site with 10 or more claims, 75 have fewer than Confluence.
Somerset County, which includes Confluence, has been named in 21 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1972, 14 of them major disasters (by incident: 6 floods, 5 snowstorms, 4 hurricanes, 4 severe storms). The latest major disaster declaration was Covid-19 Pandemic, on March 30, 2020. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Somerset County a Relatively Low rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Relatively Moderate for inland flooding, strong wind and lightning; Relatively Low for hurricanes, tornadoes and hail; Very Low for heat waves. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $21.9 million a year, the 42nd highest of 67 Pennsylvania counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $18.0 million (82%), is from inland flooding.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.
Cities near Confluence
- Rockwood, PA11 mi
- Friendsville, MD11 mi
- Accident, MD13 mi
- Farmington, PA13 mi
- Normalville, PA14 mi
- Grantsville, MD14 mi
- Salisbury, PA15 mi
- Dunbar, PA18 mi
- Bruceton Mills, WV18 mi
- Lemont Furnace, PA18 mi
- Meyersdale, PA18 mi
- Hopwood, PA19 mi
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