NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Surprise, AZ
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
No tropical storm or hurricane has passed within 75 miles of Surprise, Arizona since records began in 1851. Since 1950, 32 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 0 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 0
- Tropical storms
- 0
- Tornadoes
- 32
- EF3 or stronger
- 0
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
no recorded deaths
What the records show for Surprise
The highest rating among the 32 tornadoes within 25 miles is F2, reached 3 times; the most recent, on June 21, 1972, came within 22 miles. Of the 32, 3 had paths within 5 miles of the city centre, and 6 have come since 2000. August has had the most tornadoes, 7. The most recent tornado was on April 2, 2025. Surprise has more tornadoes within 25 miles than 82% of the 134 Arizona cities on this site. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 18 times since 1968, with stones up to 1.75 inches (golf ball size). Surprise has more hail reports within 10 miles than 72% of the 134 Arizona cities.
Compare Surprise's storm record with another city →
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Surprise
By decade
- 2020s1
- 2010s5
- 1990s6
- 1980s6
- 1970s8
- 1960s5
- 1950s1
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 1972 | F2 | 22 mi | 13.5 mi | 0 / 3 |
| Sep 14, 1971 | F2 | 10 mi | 0.1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Oct 3, 1968 | F2 | 4 mi | 0.1 mi | 0 / 3 |
| May 23, 1992 | F1 | 18 mi | 0.5 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jan 6, 1992 | F1 | 18 mi | 1.2 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 9, 1984 | F1 | 16 mi | 0.5 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 16, 1983 | F1 | 22 mi | 0.3 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 8, 1983 | F1 | 10 mi | 0.2 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 5, 1981 | F1 | 8 mi | 1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Mar 25, 1977 | F1 | 4 mi | 1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 24, 1974 | F1 | 8 mi | 0.1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 12, 1972 | F1 | 21 mi | 0.3 mi | 0 / 0 |
The strongest 12 of 32, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Surprise
The Storm Prediction Center has 18 hail reports within 10 miles of Surprise since 1968, made on 15 separate days. Of these, 10 were 1 inch across or larger, and none reached 2 inches. The largest, 1.75 inches (golf ball size), fell on September 7, 2002. The most recent report is from September 26, 2025. September and October have the most reports, 5 each.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Surprise
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Litchfield Park, AZ, 4 miles south of Surprise at 1,040 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 107°F and low of 81°F; December is the coolest, at 65°F and 42°F. February is the wettest at 1.2 inches of precipitation on average and June the driest at 0.0 inches; the year adds up to 8.4 inches over 19 days with at least a tenth of an inch. Highs reach 90°F on about 173 days a year, almost all from March to October. Lows fall below freezing on about 7 nights a year. That 8.4 inches is more than at 22 of the 76 Arizona stations used on this site (29%). El Mirage, 4 miles northeast, has its own station (Youngtown, AZ): 8.3 inches a year, the same as here, and a July average high of 105°F against 107°F.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 66 | 43 | 1.0 | 2 |
| Feb | 70 | 46 | 1.2 | 3 |
| Mar | 78 | 51 | 1.0 | 2 |
| Apr | 86 | 57 | 0.3 | 1 |
| May | 94 | 65 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Jun | 104 | 74 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jul | 107 | 81 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Aug | 105 | 81 | 1.1 | 3 |
| Sep | 99 | 74 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Oct | 88 | 61 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Nov | 75 | 49 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Dec | 65 | 42 | 0.9 | 3 |
| Year | 86 | 60 | 8.4 | 19 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Litchfield Park, AZ (1,040 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Surprise
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 182 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Surprise: 124 thunderstorm wind reports, 31 flash floods, 16 heavy rain events, 6 lightning strikes and 5 floods. They killed 0 people and injured 4, and the NWS estimated $4.4 million in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 101 mph, on August 29, 1996. July has had the most flash floods, 13 of 31. Of the 130 Arizona cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 90 have had fewer than Surprise.
August 8, 2018: lightning strike 4 miles from the centre of Surprise — 2 injured.
July 26, 2007: flash flood 9 miles from the centre of Surprise — 1 injured, $5,000 damage.
October 15, 2022: lightning strike 7 miles from the centre of Surprise — 1 injured.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Maricopa County, which includes Surprise, has been named in 26 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1966, 13 of them major disasters (by incident: 11 fires, 9 floods, 3 severe storms, 2 biological emergencies). The latest major disaster declaration was Covid-19 Pandemic, on April 4, 2020. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Maricopa County a Very High rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Very High for hail, inland flooding, strong wind and heat waves; Relatively High for lightning; Relatively Moderate for tornadoes; Very Low for hurricanes. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $2.20 billion a year, the highest of 15 Arizona counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $1.12 billion (51%), is from inland flooding.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.