NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Chapel Hill, NC
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
49 tropical systems have passed within 75 miles of Chapel Hill, North Carolina since 1851, 3 of them at hurricane strength; the most recent was Elsa in 2021. Since 1950, 50 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 3 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 3
- Tropical storms
- 46
- Tornadoes
- 50
- EF3 or stronger
- 3
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
12 deaths in all
What the records show for Chapel Hill
The strongest storm to pass near Chapel Hill was Hazel in 1954, a Category 2 hurricane with 96 mph winds when its centre passed 42 miles away. The closest pass by a hurricane was an unnamed storm in 1896, whose centre came within 6 miles. The record near Chapel Hill begins with an unnamed storm in 1854; the most recent system was Elsa in 2021, a tropical storm 22 miles away. The busiest decade was the 1880s, with 7 systems. Of the 49 systems, 9 have come since 2000. Of the 475 North Carolina cities on this site, 50% have more hurricanes within 75 miles than Chapel Hill. The strongest of the 50 tornadoes within 25 miles was an F4 on November 27, 1988; its path came within 18 miles, and it killed 4 people. The deadliest, an EF3 on April 16, 2011, killed 6 people. Of the 50, 3 had paths within 5 miles of the city centre, and 24 have come since 2000. March and July have had the most tornadoes, 10 each. The most recent tornado was on July 6, 2025. Of the 475 North Carolina cities, 64% have more tornadoes within 25 miles than Chapel Hill. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 64 times since 1956, with stones up to 1.75 inches (golf ball size). Of the 475 North Carolina cities, 49% have more hail reports within 10 miles than Chapel Hill.
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Tropical storms and hurricanes near Chapel Hill
| Year | Storm | Closest | Strength when closest | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ElsaJul 8 | 22 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2021 | ClaudetteJun 21 | 56 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 2020 | IsaiasAug 4 | 73 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2019 | NestorOct 20 | 38 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 2018 | MichaelOct 11 | 4 mi | Tropical storm (54 mph) | Category 5 |
| 2013 | AndreaJun 7 | 52 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 2008 | HannaSep 6 | 56 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2006 | AlbertoJun 14 | 62 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 2000 | HeleneSep 23 | 69 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1998 | EarlSep 4 | 73 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1996 | FranSep 6 | 12 mi | Tropical storm (61 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1985 | BobJul 25 | 66 mi | Tropical storm (39 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1979 | DavidSep 5 | 61 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1970 | AlmaMay 26 | 25 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1965 | Unnamed 1965 stormJun 16 | 57 mi | Tropical storm (41 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1959 | CindyJul 10 | 65 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1955 | DianeAug 17 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (60 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1954 | HazelOct 15 | 42 mi | Category 2 (96 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1952 | AbleAug 31 | 63 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1945 | Unnamed 1945 stormSep 18 | 2 mi | Tropical storm (51 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1944 | Unnamed 1944 stormOct 20 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (51 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1944 | Unnamed 1944 stormAug 2 | 50 mi | Tropical storm (51 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1935 | Unnamed 1935 stormSep 6 | 31 mi | Tropical storm (55 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1929 | Unnamed 1929 stormOct 2 | 12 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1916 | Unnamed 1916 stormMay 16 | 72 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1915 | Unnamed 1915 stormAug 3 | 65 mi | Tropical storm (44 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1913 | Unnamed 1913 stormSep 3 | 52 mi | Tropical storm (41 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1912 | Unnamed 1912 stormJun 14 | 68 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1904 | Unnamed 1904 stormSep 14 | 38 mi | Tropical storm (66 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1902 | Unnamed 1902 stormOct 12 | 70 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1902 | Unnamed 1902 stormJun 16 | 12 mi | Tropical storm (43 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1899 | Unnamed 1899 stormOct 31 | 34 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1896 | Unnamed 1896 stormSep 30 | 6 mi | Category 1 (79 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 13 | 33 mi | Category 1 (89 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 4 | 73 mi | Tropical storm (43 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormAug 28 | 55 mi | Tropical storm (71 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1889 | Unnamed 1889 stormSep 24 | overhead | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1888 | Unnamed 1888 stormSep 10 | 12 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1886 | Unnamed 1886 stormJul 2 | 40 mi | Tropical storm (43 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1886 | Unnamed 1886 stormJun 22 | 29 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1885 | Unnamed 1885 stormOct 13 | 8 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1883 | Unnamed 1883 stormSep 12 | 52 mi | Tropical storm (49 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1882 | Unnamed 1882 stormSep 11 | 21 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1878 | Unnamed 1878 stormSep 12 | 45 mi | Tropical storm (60 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1877 | Unnamed 1877 stormOct 4 | 29 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1874 | Unnamed 1874 stormSep 29 | 75 mi | Tropical storm (68 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1867 | Unnamed 1867 stormJun 23 | 32 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1859 | Unnamed 1859 stormSep 17 | 12 mi | Tropical storm (49 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1854 | Unnamed 1854 stormSep 9 | 52 mi | Tropical storm (48 mph) | Category 3 |
Strength is the sustained wind on the track at the closest point, which is not the wind felt in Chapel Hill: a hurricane's worst winds sit within a few dozen miles of its centre, and inland cities are usually past that.
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Chapel Hill
By decade
- 2020s10
- 2010s5(1 EF3+)
- 2000s9
- 1990s8(1 EF3+)
- 1980s6(1 EF3+)
- 1970s6
- 1960s3
- 1950s3
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 1988 | F4 | 18 mi | 83 mi | 4 / 154 |
| Apr 16, 2011 | EF3 | 21 mi | 65.23 mi | 6 / 103 |
| Nov 23, 1992 | F3 | 14 mi | 5.5 mi | 2 / 10 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF2 | 6 mi | 10.1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Mar 29, 1991 | F2 | 2 mi | 26 mi | 0 / 0 |
| May 5, 1989 | F2 | 5 mi | 8.7 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Apr 4, 1984 | F2 | 13 mi | 1.7 mi | 0 / 4 |
| Oct 7, 1965 | F2 | 21 mi | 6.1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Mar 18, 1956 | F2 | 15 mi | 0.3 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Apr 5, 1952 | F2 | 10 mi | 6.9 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | EF1 | 18 mi | 0.25 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | EF1 | 22 mi | 0.6 mi | 0 / 0 |
The strongest 12 of 50, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Chapel Hill
The Storm Prediction Center has 64 hail reports within 10 miles of Chapel Hill since 1956, made on 43 separate days. Of these, 36 were 1 inch across or larger, and none reached 2 inches. The largest size, 1.75 inches (golf ball size), was reported on 12 days, most recently April 28, 2016. The most recent report is from May 5, 2025. May and June have the most reports, 20 each.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Chapel Hill
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Chapel Hill 2 W, NC, 1 mile west of Chapel Hill at 500 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 90°F and low of 69°F; January is the coolest, at 51°F and 29°F. September is the wettest at 5.4 inches of precipitation on average and February the driest at 3.3 inches; the year adds up to 49.0 inches over 79 days with at least a tenth of an inch. June to November, the hurricane season months, bring 53% of the year's precipitation (25.9 of 49.0 inches); the other six months are drier. September has brought the most of the 49 tropical systems that passed within 75 miles (18); a normal September there has highs of 82°F and 5.4 inches of precipitation. Highs reach 90°F on about 44 days a year, almost all from May to September. Lows fall below freezing on about 77 nights a year. Snowfall averages 2.8 inches a year, most of it in January. That 49.0 inches is more than at 58 of the 140 North Carolina stations used on this site (41%). Durham, 10 miles northeast, has its own station (Durham, NC): 48.6 inches a year, 0.4 less than here, and a July average high of 87°F against 90°F.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" | Snow in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 51 | 29 | 4.0 | 8 | 1.5 |
| Feb | 54 | 31 | 3.3 | 6 | 0.9 |
| Mar | 62 | 38 | 4.4 | 7 | 0.1 |
| Apr | 72 | 47 | 3.7 | 7 | 0.0 |
| May | 79 | 56 | 3.8 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Jun | 86 | 65 | 4.1 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Jul | 90 | 69 | 4.8 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Aug | 88 | 68 | 4.3 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Sep | 82 | 62 | 5.4 | 6 | 0.0 |
| Oct | 72 | 49 | 3.8 | 5 | 0.0 |
| Nov | 62 | 38 | 3.5 | 6 | 0.1 |
| Dec | 54 | 32 | 3.9 | 7 | 0.2 |
| Year | 71 | 49 | 49.0 | 79 | 2.8 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Chapel Hill 2 W, NC (500 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Chapel Hill
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 311 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Chapel Hill: 224 thunderstorm wind reports, 73 flash floods, 6 lightning strikes, 5 heavy rain events and 3 floods. They killed 6 people and injured 6, and the NWS estimated $54.1 million in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 81 mph, on February 24, 2016. July has had the most flash floods, 28 of 73. Of the 472 North Carolina cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 460 have had fewer than Chapel Hill.
July 6, 2025: flash flood 9 miles from the centre of Chapel Hill — 2 killed.
NWS: “Two boaters launched a canoe from Marthas Chapel Road in the early evening hours. One body was found the morning of the 8th, and another found the morning of the 9th of July.”
June 28, 2020: thunderstorm wind 3 miles from the centre of Chapel Hill — 1 killed, $50,000 damage.
NWS: “One tree fell on a mobile home in the 1200 block of Martin Luther King Boulevard, resulting in a fatality.”
July 6, 2025: flash flood 5 miles from the centre of Chapel Hill — 1 killed, $20,000 damage.
NWS: “One person died when their car traveling on Farrington Point Road entered floodwaters. The driver was swept away.”
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Flood insurance policyholders in Chapel Hill's 3 ZIP codes have filed 508 claims with the National Flood Insurance Program since 1978, and were paid $32.4 million for buildings and contents, in the dollars of each year. The most came from 2025 July TS Chantal in 2025: 133 claims (26% of all) and $16.7 million, then Hurricane Florence in 2018 with 78 and Hurricane Fran in 1996 with 48. 56% of the claims carry the name of a storm or flood event; the rest have no event name. Of the 263 North Carolina cities on this site with 10 or more claims, 221 have fewer than Chapel Hill.
| Event | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 July TS Chantal2025 | 133 | $16.7 million |
| Hurricane Florence2018 | 78 | $5.3 million |
| Hurricane Fran1996 | 48 | $588,000 |
Orange County, which includes Chapel Hill, has been named in 26 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1977, 12 of them major disasters (by incident: 12 hurricanes, 3 ice storms, 3 snowstorms, 2 biological emergencies). The latest major disaster declaration was Tropical Depression Chantal, on September 11, 2025. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Orange County a Relatively Low rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Relatively High for lightning; Relatively Moderate for hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, inland flooding, strong wind and heat waves. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $49.7 million a year, the 27th highest of 100 North Carolina counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $33.3 million (67%), is from inland flooding.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.
Cities near Chapel Hill
- Carrboro, NC1 mi
- Durham, NC10 mi
- Hillsborough, NC12 mi
- Pittsboro, NC12 mi
- Morrisville, NC13 mi
- Efland, NC14 mi
- Cary, NC18 mi
- Mebane, NC18 mi
- Haw River, NC19 mi
- Moncure, NC19 mi
- Apex, NC19 mi
- New Hill, NC20 mi
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