NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Dumfries, VA
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
33 tropical systems have passed within 75 miles of Dumfries, Virginia since 1851, 3 of them at hurricane strength; the most recent was Zeta in 2020. Since 1950, 101 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 4 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 3
- Tropical storms
- 30
- Tornadoes
- 101
- EF3 or stronger
- 4
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
5 deaths in all
What the records show for Dumfries
The strongest storm to pass near Dumfries was an unnamed storm in 1878, a Category 1 hurricane with 93 mph winds when its centre passed 9 miles away. The record near Dumfries begins with an unnamed storm in 1872; the most recent system was Zeta in 2020, a tropical storm 37 miles away. The busiest decade was the 1890s, with 5 systems, one of them at hurricane strength. Of the 33 systems, 4 have come since 2000. Dumfries has more hurricanes within 75 miles than 33% of the 364 Virginia cities on this site. The strongest of the 101 tornadoes within 25 miles was an F4 on April 28, 2002; its path came within 9 miles, and it killed 3 people. Of the 101, 8 had paths within 5 miles of the city centre, and 63 have come since 2000. September has had the most tornadoes, 23. The most recent tornado was on August 8, 2024. Dumfries has more tornadoes within 25 miles than 95% of the 364 Virginia cities. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 61 times since 1958, with stones up to 2.75 inches (baseball size). Dumfries has more hail reports within 10 miles than 65% of the 364 Virginia cities.
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Tropical storms and hurricanes near Dumfries
| Year | Storm | Closest | Strength when closest | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ZetaOct 29 | 37 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 3 |
| 2020 | IsaiasAug 4 | 50 mi | Tropical storm (68 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2008 | HannaSep 6 | 61 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2006 | ErnestoSep 2 | 34 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1996 | BerthaJul 13 | 69 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1979 | DavidSep 6 | 75 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1963 | Unnamed 1963 stormJun 3 | 53 mi | Tropical storm (39 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1955 | DianeAug 18 | 38 mi | Tropical storm (45 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1955 | ConnieAug 13 | 46 mi | Tropical storm (61 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1954 | HazelOct 15 | 15 mi | Category 1 (85 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1952 | AbleSep 1 | 31 mi | Tropical storm (55 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1949 | Unnamed 1949 stormAug 29 | 41 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1945 | Unnamed 1945 stormSep 18 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1944 | Unnamed 1944 stormAug 2 | 42 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1943 | Unnamed 1943 stormOct 1 | 38 mi | Tropical storm (49 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1934 | Unnamed 1934 stormJun 19 | 36 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1933 | Unnamed 1933 stormAug 23 | 9 mi | Tropical storm (64 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1929 | Unnamed 1929 stormOct 2 | 24 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1928 | Unnamed 1928 stormSep 20 | 18 mi | Tropical storm (54 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1928 | Unnamed 1928 stormAug 12 | 64 mi | Tropical storm (48 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1915 | Unnamed 1915 stormAug 4 | 19 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1902 | Unnamed 1902 stormOct 12 | 55 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1899 | Unnamed 1899 stormNov 1 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1896 | Unnamed 1896 stormSep 30 | 71 mi | Tropical storm (71 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 23 | 45 mi | Tropical storm (44 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 13 | 42 mi | Category 1 (75 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormAug 29 | 25 mi | Tropical storm (63 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1888 | Unnamed 1888 stormSep 11 | 63 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1885 | Unnamed 1885 stormOct 13 | 41 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1878 | Unnamed 1878 stormOct 23 | 9 mi | Category 1 (93 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1877 | Unnamed 1877 stormOct 4 | 71 mi | Tropical storm (62 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1876 | Unnamed 1876 stormSep 18 | 5 mi | Tropical storm (68 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1872 | Unnamed 1872 stormOct 26 | 74 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
Strength is the sustained wind on the track at the closest point, which is not the wind felt in Dumfries: a hurricane's worst winds sit within a few dozen miles of its centre, and inland cities are usually past that.
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Dumfries
By decade
- 2020s4
- 2010s22
- 2000s37(1 EF3+)
- 1990s19
- 1980s5
- 1970s11(3 EF3+)
- 1960s2
- 1950s1
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2002 | F4 | 9 mi | 38 mi | 3 / 122 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | F3 | 19 mi | 17.9 mi | 1 / 6 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | F3 | 7 mi | 0.7 mi | 1 / 10 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | F3 | 14 mi | 9.8 mi | 0 / 37 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 16 mi | 3.42 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 17 mi | 15 mi | 0 / 1 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 5 mi | 4 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 24 mi | 13 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 24 mi | 8 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F2 | 24 mi | 1.5 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Apr 28, 2002 | F2 | 20 mi | 3 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 24, 1996 | F2 | 17 mi | 20 mi | 0 / 1 |
The strongest 12 of 101, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Dumfries
The Storm Prediction Center has 61 hail reports within 10 miles of Dumfries since 1958, made on 45 separate days. Of these, 46 were 1 inch across or larger, and 3 reached 2 inches. The largest, 2.75 inches (baseball size), fell on April 23, 1999. The most recent report is from May 5, 2025. May has the most reports, 16.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Dumfries
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Quantico Mcas, VA, 7 miles south of Dumfries at 10 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 88°F and low of 71°F; January is the coolest, at 45°F and 28°F. July is the wettest at 4.6 inches of precipitation on average and February the driest at 2.4 inches; the year adds up to 40.9 inches over 70 days with at least a tenth of an inch. June to November, the hurricane season months, bring 54% of the year's precipitation (22.1 of 40.9 inches); the other six months are drier. October has brought the most of the 33 tropical systems that passed within 75 miles (11); a normal October there has highs of 69°F and 3.3 inches of precipitation. Highs reach 90°F on about 29 days a year, almost all from May to September. Lows fall below freezing on about 76 nights a year. Snowfall averages 12.4 inches a year, most of it in February. That 40.9 inches is more than at 10 of the 109 Virginia stations used on this site (9%). Lorton, 10 miles northeast, has its own station (Oxon Hill, MD): 47.1 inches a year, 6.2 more than here, and the same July average high, 88°F.
Water temperature at the NOAA tide station Dahlgren, VA, 25 miles southeast, averaged 85°F in July and 40°F in January over 2021–2025. It averaged 80°F or warmer from July to August. Sea level at the Dahlgren tide gauge, 25 miles from Dumfries, has risen 2.24 ± 0.12 inches per decade from 1972 to 2025, NOAA's linear trend; at that pace it is 22.4 inches in a hundred years. That is faster than at 127 of the 144 U.S. gauges with a NOAA trend.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" | Snow in | Water °F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 45 | 28 | 2.7 | 5 | 3.5 | 40 |
| Feb | 48 | 30 | 2.4 | 5 | 5.8 | 42 |
| Mar | 56 | 37 | 3.6 | 6 | 1.4 | 50 |
| Apr | 68 | 47 | 3.2 | 6 | 0.0 | 60 |
| May | 76 | 57 | 3.6 | 7 | 0.0 | 69 |
| Jun | 84 | 66 | 3.5 | 7 | 0.0 | 78 |
| Jul | 88 | 71 | 4.6 | 6 | 0.0 | 85 |
| Aug | 86 | 69 | 4.2 | 5 | 0.0 | 83 |
| Sep | 80 | 62 | 3.4 | 6 | 0.0 | 77 |
| Oct | 69 | 50 | 3.3 | 5 | 0.0 | 67 |
| Nov | 58 | 39 | 3.1 | 5 | 0.0 | 55 |
| Dec | 49 | 32 | 3.3 | 7 | 1.7 | 44 |
| Year | 67 | 49 | 40.9 | 70 | 12.4 | 63 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Quantico Mcas, VA (10 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals; water temperature: average of hourly readings 2021–2025 at the NOAA tide station Dahlgren, VA, from NOAA Tides & Currents. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Dumfries
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 316 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Dumfries: 254 thunderstorm wind reports, 42 floods, 18 flash floods, 1 heavy rain event and 1 lightning strike. They killed 1 person and injured 7, and the NWS estimated $3.4 million in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 83 mph, on May 26, 2021. June has had the most flash floods, 6 of 18. Of the 364 Virginia cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 162 have had fewer than Dumfries.
July 29, 2023: thunderstorm wind in Dumfries — 1 killed, $250,000 damage.
NWS: “Trees blew down around Montclair, including one onto a residence in the 15000 block of Holly Hill Drive killing the resident inside.”
June 2, 2019: lightning strike 4 miles from the centre of Dumfries — 5 injured.
NWS: “During a severe thunderstorm at Leesylvania State Park in Prince William County, Virginia, a group of individuals sought shelter under a picnic pavilion. That structure was struck by lightning.”
May 4, 1996: thunderstorm wind 3 miles from the centre of Dumfries — 1 injured, $75,000 damage.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Flood insurance policyholders in Dumfries's 2 ZIP codes have filed 34 claims with the National Flood Insurance Program since 1979, and were paid $135,000 for buildings and contents, in the dollars of each year. 15% of the claims carry the name of a storm or flood event; the rest have no event name. Of the 183 Virginia cities on this site with 10 or more claims, 80 have fewer than Dumfries.
Prince William County, which includes Dumfries, has been named in 20 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1972, 13 of them major disasters (by incident: 6 hurricanes, 5 snowstorms, 3 severe storms, 2 biological emergencies). The latest major disaster declaration was Covid-19 Pandemic, on April 2, 2020. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Prince William County a Relatively Moderate rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Relatively High for strong wind and lightning; Relatively Moderate for hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, inland flooding and heat waves; Relatively Low for coastal flooding. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $69.0 million a year, the 3rd highest of 133 Virginia counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $44.6 million (65%), is from inland flooding.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.
Cities near Dumfries
- Triangle, VA3 mi
- Woodbridge, VA4 mi
- Quantico, VA6 mi
- Indian Head, MD10 mi
- Lorton, VA10 mi
- Stafford, VA11 mi
- Fairfax Station, VA12 mi
- Fort Belvoir, VA12 mi
- Manassas, VA14 mi
- Manassas Park, VA14 mi
- Bryans Road, MD14 mi
- Nanjemoy, MD14 mi
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