NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Nokesville, VA
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
27 tropical systems have passed within 75 miles of Nokesville, Virginia since 1851, 3 of them at hurricane strength; the most recent was Zeta in 2020. Since 1950, 83 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 5 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 3
- Tropical storms
- 24
- Tornadoes
- 83
- EF3 or stronger
- 5
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
4 deaths in all
What the records show for Nokesville
The strongest storm to pass near Nokesville was an unnamed storm in 1878, a Category 1 hurricane with 93 mph winds when its centre passed 21 miles away. The closest pass by a hurricane was Hazel in 1954, whose centre came within 1 mile. The record near Nokesville begins with an unnamed storm in 1876; the most recent system was Zeta in 2020, a tropical storm 48 miles away. The busiest decade was the 1890s, with 5 systems, one of them at hurricane strength. Of the 27 systems, 4 have come since 2000. Nokesville has more hurricanes within 75 miles than 33% of the 364 Virginia cities on this site. The highest rating among the 83 tornadoes within 25 miles is F4, reached 2 times; the most recent, on April 28, 2002, came within 24 miles. Of the 83, 3 had paths within 5 miles of the city centre, and 55 have come since 2000. September has had the most tornadoes, 21. The most recent tornado was on August 8, 2024. Nokesville has more tornadoes within 25 miles than 83% of the 364 Virginia cities. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 77 times since 1965, with stones up to 2 inches (hen egg size). Nokesville has more hail reports within 10 miles than 74% of the 364 Virginia cities.
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Tropical storms and hurricanes near Nokesville
| Year | Storm | Closest | Strength when closest | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ZetaOct 29 | 48 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 3 |
| 2020 | IsaiasAug 4 | 65 mi | Tropical storm (68 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2006 | ErnestoSep 2 | 47 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2003 | IsabelSep 19 | 67 mi | Tropical storm (61 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1979 | DavidSep 6 | 60 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1955 | DianeAug 18 | 24 mi | Tropical storm (45 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1955 | ConnieAug 13 | 57 mi | Tropical storm (60 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1954 | HazelOct 15 | 1 mi | Category 1 (85 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1952 | AbleSep 1 | 16 mi | Tropical storm (55 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1949 | Unnamed 1949 stormAug 29 | 26 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1945 | Unnamed 1945 stormSep 18 | 41 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1944 | Unnamed 1944 stormAug 2 | 55 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1943 | Unnamed 1943 stormOct 1 | 50 mi | Tropical storm (48 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1934 | Unnamed 1934 stormJun 19 | 25 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1933 | Unnamed 1933 stormAug 24 | 20 mi | Tropical storm (63 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1929 | Unnamed 1929 stormOct 2 | 38 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1928 | Unnamed 1928 stormSep 20 | 7 mi | Tropical storm (53 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1915 | Unnamed 1915 stormAug 4 | 5 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1902 | Unnamed 1902 stormOct 12 | 66 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1899 | Unnamed 1899 stormNov 1 | 41 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1896 | Unnamed 1896 stormSep 30 | 57 mi | Tropical storm (71 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 23 | 48 mi | Tropical storm (44 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 14 | 28 mi | Category 1 (75 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormAug 29 | 10 mi | Tropical storm (63 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1885 | Unnamed 1885 stormOct 13 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1878 | Unnamed 1878 stormOct 23 | 21 mi | Category 1 (93 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1876 | Unnamed 1876 stormSep 18 | 6 mi | Tropical storm (67 mph) | Category 3 |
Strength is the sustained wind on the track at the closest point, which is not the wind felt in Nokesville: a hurricane's worst winds sit within a few dozen miles of its centre, and inland cities are usually past that.
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Nokesville
By decade
- 2020s4
- 2010s18
- 2000s33(3 EF3+)
- 1990s13
- 1980s7
- 1970s4(2 EF3+)
- 1960s1
- 1950s3
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2002 | F4 | 24 mi | 38 mi | 3 / 122 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | F4 | 14 mi | 10 mi | 0 / 2 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | F3 | 20 mi | 0.7 mi | 1 / 10 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F3 | 15 mi | 9 mi | 0 / 2 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | F3 | 15 mi | 9.8 mi | 0 / 37 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 22 mi | 3.42 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 12 mi | 15 mi | 0 / 1 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 10 mi | 4 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 10 mi | 13 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 12 mi | 8 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F2 | 14 mi | 1.5 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 24, 1996 | F2 | 11 mi | 20 mi | 0 / 1 |
The strongest 12 of 83, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Nokesville
The Storm Prediction Center has 77 hail reports within 10 miles of Nokesville since 1965, made on 45 separate days. Of these, 51 were 1 inch across or larger, and one reached 2 inches. The largest, 2 inches (hen egg size), fell on May 2, 2016. The most recent report is from April 15, 2024. May has the most reports, 31.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Nokesville
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Washington Dc Dulles Airport, VA, 18 miles north of Nokesville at 290 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 88°F and low of 67°F; January is the coolest, at 43°F and 25°F. May is the wettest at 4.7 inches of precipitation on average and February the driest at 2.6 inches; the year adds up to 43.2 inches over 74 days with at least a tenth of an inch. June to November, the hurricane season months, bring 53% of the year's precipitation (22.7 of 43.2 inches); the other six months are drier. October has brought the most of the 27 tropical systems that passed within 75 miles (9); a normal October there has highs of 68°F and 3.7 inches of precipitation. Highs reach 90°F on about 33 days a year, almost all from May to September. Lows fall below freezing on about 102 nights a year. Snowfall averages 21.0 inches a year, most of it in February. That 43.2 inches is more than at 22 of the 109 Virginia stations used on this site (20%). Catlett, 5 miles southwest, has its own station (Quantico Mcas, VA): 40.9 inches a year, 2.3 less than here, and the same July average high, 88°F.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" | Snow in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 43 | 25 | 2.9 | 6 | 6.9 |
| Feb | 46 | 27 | 2.6 | 6 | 7.0 |
| Mar | 55 | 34 | 3.5 | 7 | 3.9 |
| Apr | 67 | 43 | 3.5 | 6 | 0.1 |
| May | 75 | 53 | 4.7 | 8 | 0.0 |
| Jun | 83 | 62 | 4.3 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Jul | 88 | 67 | 4.2 | 7 | 0.0 |
| Aug | 86 | 65 | 3.5 | 6 | 0.0 |
| Sep | 79 | 58 | 3.9 | 6 | 0.0 |
| Oct | 68 | 45 | 3.7 | 5 | 0.0 |
| Nov | 57 | 36 | 3.1 | 5 | 0.3 |
| Dec | 47 | 29 | 3.3 | 6 | 2.8 |
| Year | 66 | 45 | 43.2 | 74 | 21.0 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Washington Dc Dulles Airport, VA (290 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Nokesville
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 491 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Nokesville: 253 thunderstorm wind reports, 184 floods, 52 flash floods, 1 heavy rain event and 1 lightning strike. They killed 0 people and injured 5, and the NWS estimated $7.9 million in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 81 mph, on July 29, 2019. May has had the most flash floods, 29 of 52. Of the 364 Virginia cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 310 have had fewer than Nokesville.
July 27, 2008: thunderstorm wind 9 miles from the centre of Nokesville — 3 injured, $5,000 damage.
August 3, 2002: thunderstorm wind 3 miles from the centre of Nokesville — 1 injured, $1.5 million damage.
June 19, 2020: lightning strike 7 miles from the centre of Nokesville — 1 injured.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Prince William County, which includes Nokesville, has been named in 20 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1972, 13 of them major disasters (by incident: 6 hurricanes, 5 snowstorms, 3 severe storms, 2 biological emergencies). The latest major disaster declaration was Covid-19 Pandemic, on April 2, 2020. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Prince William County a Relatively Moderate rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Relatively High for strong wind and lightning; Relatively Moderate for hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, inland flooding and heat waves; Relatively Low for coastal flooding. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $69.0 million a year, the 3rd highest of 133 Virginia counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $44.6 million (65%), is from inland flooding.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.
Cities near Nokesville
- Bristow, VA3 mi
- Catlett, VA5 mi
- Manassas, VA6 mi
- Gainesville, VA8 mi
- Manassas Park, VA8 mi
- Midland, VA11 mi
- Warrenton, VA11 mi
- Haymarket, VA12 mi
- Clifton, VA12 mi
- Centreville, VA12 mi
- Bealeton, VA14 mi
- Fairfax Station, VA14 mi
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