NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Pavilion, NY
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
9 tropical systems have passed within 75 miles of Pavilion, New York since 1851, 1 of them at hurricane strength; the most recent was Frances in 2004. Since 1950, 14 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 0 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 1
- Tropical storms
- 8
- Tornadoes
- 14
- EF3 or stronger
- 0
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
2 deaths in all
What the records show for Pavilion
The strongest storm to pass near Pavilion was Hazel in 1954, a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds when its centre passed 8 miles away. The record near Pavilion begins with an unnamed storm in 1876; the most recent system was Frances in 2004, a tropical storm 15 miles away. The busiest decade was the 1870s, with 2 systems. Of the 9 systems, one has come since 2000. Of the 809 New York cities on this site, 49% have more hurricanes within 75 miles than Pavilion. The highest rating among the 14 tornadoes within 25 miles is F2 or EF2, reached 3 times; the most recent, on July 28, 2022, came within 17 miles. The deadliest, an F1 on September 3, 1993, killed 2 people. Of the 14, one had a path within 5 miles of the city centre, and 8 have come since 2000. July has had the most tornadoes, 5. The most recent tornado was on September 9, 2024. Of the 809 New York cities, 87% have more tornadoes within 25 miles than Pavilion. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 9 times since 1984, with stones up to 1.25 inches (half dollar size). Of the 809 New York cities, 94% have more hail reports within 10 miles than Pavilion.
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Tropical storms and hurricanes near Pavilion
| Year | Storm | Closest | Strength when closest | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | FrancesSep 9 | 15 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1995 | OpalOct 6 | 35 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1989 | HugoSep 23 | 40 mi | Tropical storm (41 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1972 | AgnesJun 23 | 36 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1954 | HazelOct 16 | 8 mi | Category 1 (75 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1903 | Unnamed 1903 stormSep 17 | 51 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 14 | 23 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1878 | Unnamed 1878 stormSep 13 | 36 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1876 | Unnamed 1876 stormSep 18 | 36 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 3 |
Strength is the sustained wind on the track at the closest point, which is not the wind felt in Pavilion: a hurricane's worst winds sit within a few dozen miles of its centre, and inland cities are usually past that.
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Pavilion
By decade
- 2020s7
- 2000s1
- 1990s2
- 1980s1
- 1970s2
- 1960s1
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2022 | EF2 | 17 mi | 10 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 2, 1998 | F2 | 15 mi | 15 mi | 0 / 0 |
| May 2, 1972 | F2 | 16 mi | 12 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 3, 1993 | F1 | 13 mi | 4.2 mi | 2 / 0 |
| Sep 12, 2021 | EF1 | 23 mi | 0.8 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 25, 2009 | EF1 | 20 mi | 4.12 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 8, 1981 | F1 | 20 mi | 2 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | EF0 | 23 mi | 0.2 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 15, 2024 | EF0 | in town | 0.75 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 10, 2024 | EF0 | 16 mi | 1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Apr 25, 2022 | EF0 | 13 mi | 0.75 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 29, 2020 | EF0 | 13 mi | 4.2 mi | 0 / 0 |
The strongest 12 of 14, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Pavilion
The Storm Prediction Center has 9 hail reports within 10 miles of Pavilion since 1984. Of these, 3 were 1 inch across or larger, and none reached 2 inches. The largest, 1.25 inches (half dollar size), fell on April 29, 2025, the most recent report.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Pavilion
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Mt Morris 2 W, NY, 11 miles southeast of Pavilion at 880 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 81°F and low of 60°F; January is the coolest, at 31°F and 15°F. July is the wettest at 4.1 inches of precipitation on average and February the driest at 1.5 inches; the year adds up to 33.1 inches over 78 days with at least a tenth of an inch. Highs reach 90°F on about 7 days a year, almost all from June to August. Lows fall below freezing on about 140 nights a year. That 33.1 inches is more than at 6 of the 137 New York stations used on this site (4%). Le Roy, 7 miles north, has its own station (Batavia, NY): 36.6 inches a year, 3.5 more than here, and a July average high of 80°F against 81°F.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 31 | 15 | 1.9 | 6 |
| Feb | 34 | 17 | 1.5 | 5 |
| Mar | 42 | 24 | 2.1 | 6 |
| Apr | 56 | 35 | 2.7 | 7 |
| May | 69 | 47 | 3.1 | 7 |
| Jun | 77 | 56 | 3.8 | 7 |
| Jul | 81 | 60 | 4.1 | 8 |
| Aug | 79 | 58 | 3.4 | 7 |
| Sep | 73 | 51 | 3.0 | 7 |
| Oct | 60 | 41 | 3.1 | 8 |
| Nov | 48 | 32 | 2.3 | 6 |
| Dec | 37 | 23 | 2.1 | 6 |
| Year | 57 | 38 | 33.1 | 78 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Mt Morris 2 W, NY (880 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Pavilion
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 71 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Pavilion: 60 thunderstorm wind reports, 6 flash floods, 3 heavy rain events and 2 lightning strikes. None is recorded as killing or injuring anyone; the NWS estimated $735,000 in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 69 mph, on July 14, 2016. Of the 798 New York cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 81 have had fewer than Pavilion.
June 14, 2015: flash flood 4 miles from the centre of Pavilion — $150,000 damage.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Genesee County, which includes Pavilion, has been named in 25 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1973, 13 of them major disasters (by incident: 10 snowstorms, 3 severe storms, 2 biological emergencies, 2 hurricanes). The latest major disaster declaration was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, on March 15, 2023. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Genesee County a Relatively Low rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Relatively High for lightning; Relatively Moderate for strong wind; Relatively Low for hurricanes, tornadoes, hail and inland flooding; Very Low for heat waves. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $19.1 million a year, the 48th highest of 62 New York counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $14.1 million (74%), is from inland flooding.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.
Cities near Pavilion
- Le Roy, NY7 mi
- Caledonia, NY9 mi
- Perry, NY11 mi
- Warsaw, NY12 mi
- Geneseo, NY13 mi
- Batavia, NY13 mi
- Bergen, NY13 mi
- Avon, NY14 mi
- Mount Morris, NY14 mi
- Attica, NY14 mi
- Scottsville, NY15 mi
- Churchville, NY15 mi
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