NHC HURDAT2 · SPC Tornado Database
Hurricanes and Tornadoes That Hit Warsaw, VA
Every tropical system within 75 miles since 1851 and every tornado within 25 miles since 1950.
Data: NOAA NHC HURDAT2 and NOAA SPC tornado and hail reports, through 2025 · Updated
50 tropical systems have passed within 75 miles of Warsaw, Virginia since 1851, 3 of them at hurricane strength; the most recent was Elsa in 2021. Since 1950, 59 tornadoes have touched down within 25 miles, 2 of them rated EF3 or stronger.
- Hurricanes
- 3
- Tropical storms
- 47
- Tornadoes
- 59
- EF3 or stronger
- 2
within 75 mi, since 1851
below hurricane strength
within 25 mi, since 1950
no recorded deaths
What the records show for Warsaw
The strongest storm to pass near Warsaw was an unnamed storm in 1878, a Category 2 hurricane with 96 mph winds when its centre passed 21 miles away. The record near Warsaw begins with an unnamed storm in 1856; the most recent system was Elsa in 2021, a tropical storm 29 miles away. The 1870s and the 1880s were the busiest decades, with 5 systems each. Of the 50 systems, 8 have come since 2000. Warsaw has more hurricanes within 75 miles than 33% of the 364 Virginia cities on this site. The highest rating among the 59 tornadoes within 25 miles is F3 or EF3, reached 2 times; the most recent, on February 24, 2016, came within 5 miles. Of the 59, 5 had paths within 5 miles of the city centre, and 40 have come since 2000. May has had the most tornadoes, 11. The most recent tornado was on July 1, 2025. Warsaw has more tornadoes within 25 miles than 64% of the 364 Virginia cities. Hail has been reported within 10 miles 38 times since 1965, with stones up to 2 inches (hen egg size). Of the 364 Virginia cities, 59% have more hail reports within 10 miles than Warsaw.
Compare Warsaw's storm record with another city →
Tropical storms and hurricanes near Warsaw
| Year | Storm | Closest | Strength when closest | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ElsaJul 9 | 29 mi | Tropical storm (55 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2020 | ZetaOct 29 | 14 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 3 |
| 2020 | IsaiasAug 4 | 5 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2019 | NestorOct 20 | 64 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 2013 | AndreaJun 8 | 48 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 2008 | HannaSep 6 | 9 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2006 | ErnestoSep 2 | overhead | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 2004 | GastonAug 31 | 49 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1999 | FloydSep 16 | 69 mi | Tropical storm (71 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1996 | BerthaJul 13 | 23 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1992 | DanielleSep 25 | 66 mi | Tropical storm (53 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1983 | DeanSep 30 | 61 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1971 | DoriaAug 28 | 58 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1963 | Unnamed 1963 stormJun 3 | 32 mi | Tropical storm (47 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1961 | Unnamed 1961 stormSep 14 | 62 mi | Tropical storm (54 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1960 | BrendaJul 30 | 44 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1959 | CindyJul 10 | 70 mi | Tropical storm (47 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1955 | ConnieAug 13 | 26 mi | Tropical storm (67 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1954 | HazelOct 15 | 55 mi | Category 1 (86 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1945 | Unnamed 1945 stormSep 18 | 25 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1944 | Unnamed 1944 stormOct 21 | 41 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1944 | Unnamed 1944 stormAug 2 | 12 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1943 | Unnamed 1943 stormOct 1 | 31 mi | Tropical storm (55 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1935 | Unnamed 1935 stormSep 6 | 74 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1933 | Unnamed 1933 stormAug 23 | 8 mi | Tropical storm (70 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1929 | Unnamed 1929 stormOct 2 | 22 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 4 |
| 1928 | Unnamed 1928 stormSep 19 | 40 mi | Tropical storm (59 mph) | Category 5 |
| 1928 | Unnamed 1928 stormAug 12 | 11 mi | Tropical storm (49 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1924 | Unnamed 1924 stormSep 30 | 56 mi | Category 1 (74 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1916 | Unnamed 1916 stormMay 17 | 52 mi | Tropical storm (47 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1915 | Unnamed 1915 stormAug 4 | 72 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1904 | Unnamed 1904 stormSep 15 | 26 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1902 | Unnamed 1902 stormOct 12 | 5 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1902 | Unnamed 1902 stormJun 16 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1899 | Unnamed 1899 stormOct 31 | 21 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1893 | Unnamed 1893 stormOct 23 | 54 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1889 | Unnamed 1889 stormSep 25 | 53 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1888 | Unnamed 1888 stormSep 11 | 10 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1886 | Unnamed 1886 stormJul 2 | 34 mi | Tropical storm (40 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1882 | Unnamed 1882 stormSep 23 | 58 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1882 | Unnamed 1882 stormSep 11 | 28 mi | Tropical storm (52 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1878 | Unnamed 1878 stormOct 23 | 21 mi | Category 2 (96 mph) | Category 2 |
| 1877 | Unnamed 1877 stormOct 4 | 19 mi | Tropical storm (62 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1876 | Unnamed 1876 stormSep 17 | 30 mi | Tropical storm (70 mph) | Category 3 |
| 1874 | Unnamed 1874 stormSep 29 | 28 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1872 | Unnamed 1872 stormOct 26 | 27 mi | Tropical storm (46 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1863 | Unnamed 1863 stormSep 18 | 50 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Tropical storm |
| 1861 | Unnamed 1861 stormSep 27 | 56 mi | Tropical storm (69 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1859 | Unnamed 1859 stormSep 17 | 34 mi | Tropical storm (62 mph) | Category 1 |
| 1856 | Unnamed 1856 stormAug 20 | 68 mi | Tropical storm (58 mph) | Tropical storm |
Strength is the sustained wind on the track at the closest point, which is not the wind felt in Warsaw: a hurricane's worst winds sit within a few dozen miles of its centre, and inland cities are usually past that.
Tornadoes within 25 miles of Warsaw
By decade
- 2020s9
- 2010s21(1 EF3+)
- 2000s10
- 1990s7
- 1980s4
- 1970s5
- 1960s2(1 EF3+)
- 1950s1
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Killed / injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2016 | EF3 | 5 mi | 30.34 mi | 0 / 25 |
| Nov 2, 1966 | F3 | in town | 0.1 mi | 0 / 2 |
| May 3, 2021 | EF2 | 10 mi | 4.41 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 4, 2020 | EF2 | 20 mi | 15.61 mi | 0 / 5 |
| May 2, 1989 | F2 | 20 mi | 5 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Aug 31, 1983 | F2 | 1 mi | 0.2 mi | 0 / 0 |
| May 11, 1981 | F2 | 20 mi | 0.2 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Apr 25, 1975 | F2 | 11 mi | 0.1 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | EF1 | 21 mi | 0.98 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Apr 3, 2024 | EF1 | 9 mi | 5.78 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Feb 24, 2016 | EF1 | 21 mi | 4.01 mi | 0 / 0 |
| Feb 24, 2016 | EF1 | 13 mi | 6.06 mi | 0 / 0 |
The strongest 12 of 59, by rating and then by deaths. Ratings before February 2007 are on the original Fujita scale.
Hail in Warsaw
The Storm Prediction Center has 38 hail reports within 10 miles of Warsaw since 1965, made on 30 separate days. Of these, 16 were 1 inch across or larger, and one reached 2 inches. The largest, 2 inches (hen egg size), fell on August 26, 2003. The most recent report is from June 16, 2023. June has the most reports, 10.
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports, data through 2025.
Weather by month in Warsaw
The nearest NOAA station with 1991–2020 climate normals is Warsaw 2 NW, VA, 2 miles northwest of Warsaw at 140 feet. July is the warmest, with an average high of 88°F and low of 68°F; January is the coolest, at 47°F and 29°F. August is the wettest at 5.0 inches of precipitation on average and February the driest at 2.6 inches; the year adds up to 45.3 inches over 75 days with at least a tenth of an inch. June to November, the hurricane season months, bring 57% of the year's precipitation (25.6 of 45.3 inches); the other six months are drier. September has brought the most of the 50 tropical systems that passed within 75 miles (20); a normal September there has highs of 80°F and 4.2 inches of precipitation. Highs reach 90°F on about 44 days a year, almost all from May to September. Lows fall below freezing on about 77 nights a year. Snowfall averages 11.5 inches a year, most of it in January. That 45.3 inches is more than at 45 of the 109 Virginia stations used on this site (41%). Lancaster, 20 miles southeast, has its own station (W Pt 2 NW, VA): 48.1 inches a year, 2.8 more than here, and a July average high of 90°F against 88°F.
Water temperature at the NOAA tide station Lewisetta, VA, 16 miles east, averaged 83°F in July and 40°F in January over 2021–2025. It averaged 80°F or warmer from July to August. Sea level at the Lewisetta tide gauge, 16 miles from Warsaw, has risen 2.34 ± 0.11 inches per decade from 1970 to 2025, NOAA's linear trend; at that pace it is 23.4 inches in a hundred years. That is faster than at 130 of the 144 U.S. gauges with a NOAA trend.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | Precip. in | Days ≥ 0.1" | Snow in | Water °F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 47 | 29 | 3.0 | 6 | 4.4 | 40 |
| Feb | 50 | 30 | 2.6 | 5 | 3.3 | 42 |
| Mar | 59 | 37 | 3.7 | 6 | 1.4 | 49 |
| Apr | 70 | 46 | 3.2 | 7 | 0.1 | 59 |
| May | 77 | 55 | 3.9 | 7 | 0.0 | 68 |
| Jun | 84 | 64 | 4.4 | 7 | 0.0 | 77 |
| Jul | 88 | 68 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.0 | 83 |
| Aug | 86 | 66 | 5.0 | 7 | 0.0 | 82 |
| Sep | 80 | 60 | 4.2 | 6 | 0.0 | 76 |
| Oct | 70 | 49 | 4.0 | 6 | 0.0 | 66 |
| Nov | 60 | 39 | 3.3 | 5 | 0.1 | 55 |
| Dec | 50 | 32 | 3.3 | 6 | 2.2 | 45 |
| Year | 68 | 48 | 45.3 | 75 | 11.5 | 62 |
Averages for 1991–2020 at Warsaw 2 NW, VA (140 ft), from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals; water temperature: average of hourly readings 2021–2025 at the NOAA tide station Lewisetta, VA, from NOAA Tides & Currents. Normals describe the station; the farther a place is from it, and the bigger the difference in height, the more its weather can differ.
Floods, thunderstorm wind and lightning near Warsaw
Since 1996, the National Weather Service has logged 202 flood, rain, thunderstorm wind and lightning events that began within 10 miles of Warsaw: 123 thunderstorm wind reports, 44 heavy rain events, 26 flash floods and 9 floods. None is recorded as killing or injuring anyone; the NWS estimated $395,000 in property and crop damage. The strongest thunderstorm gust on record here was 81 mph, on August 6, 2000. June has had the most flash floods, 16 of 26. Of the 364 Virginia cities on this site with a flash flood on record, 224 have had fewer than Warsaw.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, events whose starting point is on record, 1996 to June 30, 2026. Damage is the NWS estimate in the dollars of the year, not insured losses, and NWS notes that some reports are unverified.
Flood insurance claims, disaster declarations and FEMA risk ratings
Richmond County, which includes Warsaw, has been named in 24 federal disaster or emergency declarations since 1969, 15 of them major disasters (by incident: 11 hurricanes, 3 snowstorms, 2 biological emergencies, 2 floods). The latest major disaster declaration was Severe Winter Storms, on May 10, 2021. FEMA's National Risk Index gives Richmond County a Very Low rating for natural hazard risk overall; by hazard: Relatively Low for hurricanes, coastal flooding and strong wind; Very Low for tornadoes, hail, inland flooding, lightning and heat waves. It models the county's expected loss from all 18 hazards it covers at $3.9 million a year, the 113th highest of 133 Virginia counties; of the hazards above, the largest share, $1.4 million (36%), is from hurricanes.
Claims: FEMA, OpenFEMA Dataset FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims – v3, summed over ZIP codes; payments in the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. Declarations: Disaster Declarations Summaries – v2, by county. Retrieved October 25, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Risk ratings: FEMA, National Risk Index county table, December 2025 (v1.20), retrieved October 26, 2026; ratings compare counties nationwide, are meant for planning and are no substitute for a local risk assessment. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
What counts as a pass, the distances and the sources: how this storm history is built.
Cities near Warsaw
- Dunnsville, VA8 mi
- Tappahannock, VA9 mi
- Callao, VA11 mi
- Montross, VA12 mi
- Lancaster, VA20 mi
- Heathsville, VA22 mi
- Colonial Beach, VA22 mi
- Leonardtown, MD22 mi
- Great Mills, MD25 mi
- Lexington Park, MD25 mi
- Aylett, VA26 mi
- King William, VA26 mi
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